Snow is expected for Philly’s Monday morning commute, followed by a prolonged cold spell

Having already clinched at least a tie for 138th place in the 141-year period of snow records in Philly, the winter of 2024-25 almost certainly will move up in the standings on Monday with the most significant snowfall of the young season.

While that was the weekend consensus among meteorologists and assorted computer models, it remained unclear just how far this winter will have climbed in those snow standings by the time the official measurements are in from Philadelphia International Airport.

The potential threat prompted the National Weather Service to issue its first “winter storm watch” of the season for the city and the western suburbs and areas to the south, for 3 and perhaps up to 6 inches of snow. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and the city say they are ready for whatever makes it to the ground.

But it’s also all but certain that the snow totals are going to have an upside-down look, with the highest totals in Delaware and South Jersey, and a virtual dry wall not too far north of Philly where amounts would be dramatically lower.

Figuring out just where the snow will encounter that wall is going to be a forecast “headache,” said Mike Lee, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. “It’s a tug-of-war.”

In its late-day update Saturday, the weather service cautioned: “Small changes in forecast track of the storm will mean potentially large changes in total snow amount.”

The answer is likely to be a moving target even as the snow is falling on Monday.

As much as 6 to 10 inches could accumulate in a narrow 30-mile band on Monday, said Bob Larsen, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. He said it was likely that band would set up in a corridor from Baltimore to near Wilmington.

AccuWeather is predicting 2 to 4 inches in the city, with 6 and perhaps a little more in Delaware and South Jersey. That includes the Shore: This is not a nor’easter coastal storm that would generate strong, warming winds off the ocean.

It is a massive storm moving west to east with moisture interacting with very cold air from the north. “There’s no snow/rain line to worry about with this storm,” Larsen said.

Whatever falls will be powdery, without much liquid content, and thus easily shovel-able.

Another upside for those of you tired of those gusts the last few days: Monday is going to be relatively windless, Larsen said. But those winds will be back Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with gusts to 40 mph possible.

Probably during the early morning hours of Monday and just in time for the morning commute, forecasters said.

Sorry, kids. If the forecast holds, they might not let you go to school.

A wild card, however, is that northern dry wall. If it presses farther south than expected, it could delay the onset of the snow or result in lower-than-forecast totals, or perhaps even a snow bust, particularly for Bucks County on north.

“It’s a quick-hitter,” Larsen said, and it may be over by sunset Monday.

The gusts scheduled to resume Tuesday will be the vanguard of the most significant cold spell in at least four years, Larsen said, as Arctic cold dominates the eastern two-thirds of the country.

He said Philly may experience temperatures well below normal “for a solid two weeks straight.”

The government’s Climate Prediction Center has the odds favoring temperatures below normal through Jan. 18.

Temperatures are forecast to get no higher than the low and mid-30s for the next several days, with another storm threat next weekend. But first storms first.

So far this season, the government observers at the airport have reported 0.3 inches of snow, which happened to be the seasonal totals in both the winters of 2019-20 and 2022-23.

Next on the snowless list would be the winter of 1997-98: 0.8 inches.

The winter of 1972-73 remains safely in last place, the only winter in records dating to the 1884-85 season without measurable snow.