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Knicks vs. Heat prediction: We’re banking on Miami moving on to Eastern Conference final

Heat will rebound from Game 5 loss in New York with a comfortable series-clinching win Friday

Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler had a nine-game streak of scoring at least 25 points end Wednesday when he tallied just 19 points in his team’s Game 5 loss at the New York Knicks. Miami still leads the best-of-7 series 3-2 heading into Friday’s Game 6 at home. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Miami Heat guard Jimmy Butler had a nine-game streak of scoring at least 25 points end Wednesday when he tallied just 19 points in his team’s Game 5 loss at the New York Knicks. Miami still leads the best-of-7 series 3-2 heading into Friday’s Game 6 at home. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)Read moreElsa / Getty Images
    by Matt Jacob, Action Network
    Published 

The New York Knicks completed the first step toward saving their season Wednesday with a victory over the visiting Miami Heat.

Now they just have to do it again Friday in Miami, then once more back home on Sunday, to earn their first trip to the Eastern Conference finals in 23 years.

Needless to say, NBA oddsmakers aren’t high on New York’s chances to even complete Step 2, let alone Step 3.

Neither are we.

Here’s our wagering take for Game 6 of a best-of-7 series that has seen the home team rip off four consecutive victories.

Odds updated as of 10:15 a.m. ET on May 12.

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Knicks vs. Heat Prediction

  1. Heat -5.5 (at BetMGM)

  2. Note: Stick with this bet up to Heat -6

Knicks vs. Heat Prediction: Analysis

The history books will show that the Knicks took care of business rather handily against Miami in Game 6, rolling to a 112-103 victory.

Anyone who watched all four quarters knows otherwise.

New York slept-walked through the first quarter, getting outscored 24-14. And while the Knicks went on a 59-30 run from the start of the second quarter until late in the third, they again hit the snooze button in the fourth quarter.

As a result, New York’s 19-point lead evaporated to two points with a little more than 2½ minutes remaining in the contest.

» READ MORE: Warriors vs. Lakers prediction: With Anthony Davis expected to play, count on the Lakers to move on

Do the Knicks deserve credit for hanging on and eventually putting the Heat away? Sure. But it’s difficult to envision something similar transpiring Friday night in South Beach.

The reason? Virtually everything went right for the Knicks in Game 5, and they still barely escaped — at home.

Consider:

  1. New York’s starting backcourt of Quentin Grimes and Jalen Brunson each played the entire game. Brunson got 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists out of his 48 minutes, while Grimes had just eight points, five assists and as many turnovers (four) as rebounds.

  2. Knicks forwards Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett combined for 50 points and 12 rebounds while making 50% of their shots (15-for-30).

  3. The Heat shot just 42% from the field, including missing 30 of 43 attempts from beyond the 3-point line.

  4. And Miami star Jimmy Butler finished with 19 points, ending a streak of nine consecutive 25-point games dating back to a play-in elimination victory over the Chicago Bulls.

Yep, it took all that for the Knicks to beat Miami for a second time in this series. Their first victory? It came back in Game 2, with Butler on the bench in street clothes nursing the minor ankle injury he sustained late in Game 1.

With Butler on the court and delivering the kind of playoff masterpieces that have defined his career, Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS against New York.

Final scores of those three games: 108-101 (road), 105-86 (home), 109-101 (home).

» READ MORE: Sixers head to Boston for Game 7 as big betting underdogs vs. Celtics

In all, the Heat are 8-3 since a surprising win-and-move-on play-in loss to the Atlanta Hawks. That includes knocking out the Eastern Conference No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in just five games in the opening round.

Going back to late March, Miami also has won and covered five straight following a loss.

Speaking of covering, the Heat completely destroyed bettors in the regular season, finishing with the NBA’s worst point-spread record. But they’re currently on a 9-2 ATS roll — even after losing as a 3.5-point underdog Wednesday.

Now Miami stands on the precipice of reaching the Eastern Conference finals for the third time in four years — and becoming the first No. 8 seed to do so in nearly a quarter century.

Bet on the Heat to make that history Friday with a convincing series-clinching home win over an outmatched Knicks squad that will be running on fumes 48 hours after a max-effort victory at home.

Knicks vs. Heat Odds (via BetMGM):

  1. Point spread: Knicks (+5.5) @ Heat (-5.5)

  2. Moneyline: Knicks (+185) @ Heat (-225)

  3. Total: 208.5 points (Over -115/Under -115)

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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