Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the Bills game in Week 12

The Eagles host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Here are the game predictions from the beat writers.

After wins against the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs, the Eagles’ midseason gauntlet continues with a short-week matchup against the 6-5 Buffalo Bills. They’ve experienced a bit more turmoil than anticipated this season (I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl in our preseason predictions, for what it’s worth) — after losing, 24-22, to the Denver Broncos in Week 10, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Joe Brady. Dorsey was just one year removed from helping the Bills become the No. 2 offense in 2022 in his first year on the job.

The Bills offense has ranked in the top 10 in scoring this season (currently No. 6 in the league). But they’ve struggled with turnovers, as 16.4% of their drives have ended in one (No. 3). The Bills turned the ball over four times in the game that led to Dorsey’s firing. Quarterback Josh Allen has contributed to the issue by chucking up 12 interceptions (No. 2, one away from tying the league high). The Eagles have had their own turnover issues (13.3%; No. 13), but they’ve had a positive turnover differential in their last two games, and Jalen Hurts has thrown one interception in his last three games.

Despite the turnovers, the Bills still boast a formidable offense, particularly in the passing game. They’re averaging 7.1 net yards per passing attempt (No. 4) and they’ve scored the third-most passing touchdowns in the league (22). Allen’s go-to option in the passing game is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who accounts for 31.1% of the Bills’ receiving yards (895) and 30.5% of their targets (110). He has lined up in the slot on 37.3% of his snaps this season, according to Pro Football Focus. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him there even more frequently against the Eagles, who have been susceptible to giving up yards in the middle of the field.

The real advantage that the Eagles will have this week, like most weeks, will be with their receiving corps. The Bills secondary is rife with injury. Kaiir Elam (ankle) and Tre’Davious White (Achilles) are on injured reserve. Dane Jackson (concussion) and Taylor Rapp (neck) have been ruled out. Taron Johnson (concussion), Cam Lewis (shoulder), and Micah Hyde (neck) were on the injury report this week, although their game statuses were not in doubt on the final injury report. Linebacker Matt Milano (knee), who is talented in coverage, is on injured reserve, too.

Before the season started, I picked this game as a loss for the Eagles. But given the Bills’ hot-and-cold nature this season, their injuries to the secondary, plus the Eagles’ resiliency all season long, I’m giving this one to the home team, even on a short week with a holiday.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Bills 21

Going into the season, I declared this Sunday’s home game against the Buffalo Bills as a classic trap game for the Eagles.

It falls between two highly anticipated postseason matchups on the Eagles schedule and takes place a few days after Thanksgiving, leaving a handful of reasons for the Eagles to come out a bit flat.

That said, the gulf between these teams is bigger than expected going into the season. Buffalo will have a heightened sense of urgency to continue correcting course from a two-game losing streak earlier this month, but the Eagles have talent advantages in significant spots, so much so it’s hard to pick against them.

Those advantages are most apparent on the perimeter for the Eagles’ offense. Buffalo has been depleted in the secondary to an alarming amount. The Bills’ two starting cornerbacks (White and Elam) are both on injured reserve. Hyde and nickel corner Johnson are expected to play after returning to practice, but the sub package of safety Rapp and Jackson were ruled out Friday.

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That should set the Eagles up for success through the air. Buffalo also is without Milano, further weakening a run defense that ranks 14th in DVOA through 11 games. All this to say, the Eagles should be able to put up points.

On the other side of the ball, takeaways will be even more important against this turnover-prone Bills offense. Allen has thrown 12 interceptions this season, second only to Sam Howell. Buffalo has talent on offense, but generating pressure and forcing a turnover or two would go a long way toward stemming the tide enough for the offense to run away with the game.

Defensive coordinator Sean Desai will once again face the challenge of crafting a successful scheme for a dynamic wide receiver who spends time in the slot. According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs spends about 37% of his time in the slot. Given the Eagles’ trouble with CeeDee Lamb a few weeks ago, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him spend even more time there on Sunday to test the Eagles defense.

The Eagles were successful against Travis Kelce last Monday, partly because Bradley Roby was back in the fold and partly because Desai used a heavy dose of double teams on the star tight end. Doing so against the Bills will bring Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid to the forefront — can the rest of the secondary hold up?

Even if they can’t, being opportunistic with turnovers should be enough to stem the tide. The Eagles could be sluggish from Thanksgiving turkey and the big win at Arrowhead, but they have enough matchup advantages to pull this one out regardless.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Bills 24

There typically aren’t many positive takeaways from offering predictions. But for whatever it’s worth, I’ve correctly predicted every outcome so far this season. During the bye week, I re-evaluated the remaining schedule and maintained my preseason prediction that the Eagles would drop this upcoming home contest against the Bills. It might be silly to switch gears now, but the Eagles are on quite a roll, while the Bills have been up-and-down since the season kicked off.

Similar to the Eagles, Buffalo has experienced a litany of injuries to its secondary. That may be where the Eagles have a clear advantage with top receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Tight end Dallas Goedert is still sidelined, but so is Bills top linebacker Milano.

Hurts and Allen both have been plagued this season by an uptick in interceptions. Desai’s best game plans have occurred against several of the league’s top passers. While Allen isn’t having an MVP-type season, he still possesses one of the strongest arms in the league. Whatever Desai has cooked up for Allen could be a leading factor in deciding this game’s outcome. Last week, it was newcomers Roby and Kevin Byard, who collectively saved the Eagles in the red zone with their pair of forced turnovers.

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The Eagles have a clear advantage on paper, particularly with their matchups at wide receiver vs. Buffalo’s banged-up secondary. But there have been instances in the past when tailoring the play calling around some obvious matchups due to injury has gotten in the way of the offense’s success (see: Oct. 15 loss at New York Jets). During that lone defeat, the Jets were missing starting cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, but the Eagles managed just 14 points, while running back D’Andre Swift had just 18 rushing yards across 10 carries.

The Bills are hungry to keep their season alive and the Eagles, as the NFL’s top team, always will have a target on their back. With an NFC championship rematch against the San Francisco 49ers looming, can the Eagles truly maintain their one-game-at-a-time approach?

Prediction: Bills 27, Eagles 24

You can’t talk about the Bills without mentioning Allen first. Yeah, having the quarterback atop the list of headliners isn’t exactly groundbreaking, but Allen is integral to nearly everything the Bills do offensively. Buffalo may have a new coordinator after Dorsey was fired, but little changed schematically in Brady’s first game in charge of the offense, and I’d expect the same on Sunday. Allen runs the show and has great freedom at the line. He can rescue a bad play with his cannon arm and on the ground with his mobility. But he also can conversely compound DOA calls by forcing throws that lead to interceptions and scrambling into contact that can lead to fumbles.

He has 12 interceptions and three fumbles this season and the Bills as a whole have 19 turnovers. Dorsey shares some of the responsibility, but his offense ranked in the top five in yards per play, on third down and in the red zone by the time of his firing. Such is life in the NFL. Buffalo certainly has talent on that side of the ball. Diggs is one of the best in the game. He can beat defenses at all three levels. But there’s a drop off after him in terms of Allen’s receiving options. It makes sense again for Desai to concentrate his coverages toward a bona fide No. 1. He’s had mixed results in this regard, especially vs. inside receivers. Diggs lines up in the slot 38% of the time. Roby improved the slot corner spot for the Eagles upon his return vs. the Chiefs, but Desai continued to rotate in rookies Eli Ricks and Sydney Brown and they could be prime targets for Allen.

The Eagles’ run defense had its worst performance in Kansas City, and the Bills aren’t afraid to pound the ball with running back James Cook. The Eagles will also be without defensive tackle Milton Williams (concussion), who arguably was their best run defender last game. They do have advantages in the interior, especially in pass rush situations. If Jalen Carter or Fletcher Cox can get matched up 1-on-1 vs. vs. either guard — Connor McGovern or massive rookie O’Cyrus Torrence (6-foot-5, 347 pounds) — they should have an opportunity to pressure Allen.

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The Bills’ pass rush has been its strength on defense despite a rash of injuries at the cornerback position. They can come at you myriad ways with edges Leonard Floyd, Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, and defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Buffalo’s 35 sacks are second-most in the NFL. The Eagles had protection issues vs. the Chiefs, but some of that had to do with crowd noise. Sean McDermott, like Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo, is from the Jim Johnson school of pressure defense. But he hasn’t had to blitz as much this season because of the strength of his four-man front.

Hurts got the ball out quicker in the second half to offset the Chiefs’ rush, but the Eagles want explosive plays and they should have chances on the outside if he has time vs. Buffalo. The Bills’ corners top two corners — Johnson and Rasul Douglas — are skilled defenders, but they’re not burners and will need safety help on occasion. Douglas has two interceptions since the Bills acquired him three games ago. The Eagles’ offensive coaches may look at the Bills run defense as opportunity to get their ground game back in full gear. There was improvement last week that came with right guard Cam Jurgens’ return, among other reasons. But Nick Sirianni and Brian Johnson can’t be lulled into running the ball with their edge in the secondary.

The 6-5 Bills have only one quality win over the Dolphins so far this season. They have seemingly unperformed. But maybe their regression since coming oh so close to reaching the Super Bowl two years ago is real. Maybe they’re just a little-better-than-.500 team that may need a regime change. Or maybe they still have fight. They can certainly deliver a performance worthy of a road upset, especially if the Eagles are sloppy and turnover prone. But I’m not convinced enough to pick against the home team.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Bills 20

The Eagles host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest story lines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.